Space Weather Sectors Need Better Data, Survey Finds

The first user needs survey from the Space Weather Advisory Group found that users of space weather forecasts and observations see a need for more granular and accessible data. A report based on the survey concludes that space weather research should adopt a systems-based approach that unites the goals of currently disparate observations and efforts.

SWAG, an advisory body administered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, reported the results of this first survey in September. The report enables space weather community members to give input into the priorities of the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee of the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy, said SWAG chair Tamara Dickinson.

“Now it’s for SWORM and the SWORM agencies to figure out if and how they want to implement these recommendations,” Dickinson said. “They’re going to have to pick and choose depending on the funding.”

The report identifies several needs across the surveyed commercial and academic sectors, including specificity of measurements and forecasts, support for education in space weather, and accessible data. Furthermore, every sector has needs that depend on research activities, Dickinson said, which would benefit from a systems-based approach to planning and investment and the development of greater observational capabilities.

A 2008 National Research Council report estimated that outages from a severe geomagnetic storm could have societal and economic costs of around $1 trillion. During the Gannon Storm this past May, the most intense space weather event on Earth in the last 20 years, early notification systems allowed many companies to take precautionary actions, according to the SWAG report. “Even though various sectors were affected during the 2024 Gannon Storm, a decade of Federal space weather coordination through SWORM showcased an increased level of national preparedness,” the report states.

However, the storm did not reach the extreme intensity of the Carrington Event of 1859, a geomagnetic storm that caused sparking and damage to telegraph systems and produced auroras across the globe. “Despite our increased preparedness, the next space weather event could be Carrington-class and result in devastating consequences across multiple sectors and countries,” the report adds.

Needs in the research sector

The report recommends that NASA, NOAA, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Department of Defense develop a systems-based funding plan, with the first step being creating an observing system simulation experiment. The experiment would assess the usefulness of new datasets in improving model forecasts, informing the overall strategy of which measurements to prioritize. The report notes that multiple agencies have their own efforts for advancing space weather research, such as the 2024 Heliophysics Decadal Survey and the One NOAA strategy. “However,” it adds, “there is a lack of clearly delineated pathways, timelines, and milestones to achieve research objectives and enable their strategic transition to operations.”

Survey participants suggested the systems-based approach could close observational gaps, such as coverage of the Sun. Solar photosphere magnetic fields drive all space weather variability, one participant said, but researchers only observe magnetic fields for about one-third of the solar global surface, which greatly hinders their ability to forecast solar wind, coronal mass ejections, and extreme ultraviolet over periods longer than three days. According to the report, incorporating direct polar field observations would greatly improve space weather predictions but would require new observational strategies such as using constellations of spacecraft around the Sun, as well as expanded ground station and communication capacity to quickly incorporate observations into next-generation models.

The report notes that the space weather research community has many sub-disciplines with disparate needs and requirements. For instance, ground-based assets are often used to study the Sun, thermosphere, and ionosphere, while space-based observations are often used to study the heliosphere and magnetosphere. The report suggests that a systems-based approach would consider the impact on modeling from adding or losing one dataset and subsequent impacts on safety and costs across space weather sectors.

“Space weather is driven on both sides by the Sun and Earth’s lower atmosphere,” one survey participant said. “You need better representation of the solar driver and lower atmosphere driver and how they connect. That’s what we’re talking about, developing a whole geospace model that can consider all of this, the self-consistent interactions with the system.”

Using research to support commercial sectors

Interviewees from commercial sectors pointed out their need for data specific to their own spheres: for example, electric power grid owners and operators need geographically local measurements, the space traffic management and control sector needs data specific to their atmospheric and orbital regions, and emergency managers need local measurements that inform models that can forecast weather events far into the future.

The report states that next-generation sensor deployment should focus on making sensors smaller and more mobile to reach new places through “diverse platforms and rideshare opportunities.” It adds that agencies can also take further advantage of current sensors, paired with improved infrastructure on the ground, to increase the resolution and coverage of key space weather data.

The report also identifies data accessibility as a need across research and commercial sectors. On the research side, multi-decadal data sets fuel model development, verification, and validation. These archives should be kept machine-readable, AI/ML-friendly, and aligned with newly collected data for interoperability, the report argues. On the other hand, respondents from commercial sectors emphasized efficient space weather information transfer such as real-time, automated flare location products for the human space flight industry and real-time data on geomagnetically induced currents for the electric industry to mitigate space weather effects on the power grid.